The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) is the principal publication issued by the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Released monthly, typically during the second week of each calendar month, the MOMR provides OPEC's analytical view of global oil supply, demand, inventory, pricing, and economic conditions. The publication is one of the most authoritative single sources of OPEC member production data — particularly through the "secondary sources" methodology that synthesizes external production estimates — and is closely read by trading desks, government analysts, and industry participants for both its data content and its narrative signals about OPEC policy thinking.
Understanding the MOMR requires understanding its structural sections, the data series it presents, the secondary sources methodology that distinguishes it from member self-reporting, the narrative commentary patterns that signal OPEC institutional thinking, and the comparison with the parallel IEA Oil Market Report that provides an alternative analytical perspective.
Release Schedule and Format
The MOMR is released on a defined schedule:
- Monthly publication — Typically during the second week of each calendar month
- Coverage period — The report typically references data through the prior month, with subsequent revisions in later monthly editions
- Format — Published as a comprehensive PDF document, typically 80-100 pages, with consistent structural sections across editions
- Public availability — Released without paywall on the OPEC website, with all data freely accessible
Market participants typically receive the report within minutes of its public release. Trading desks have established workflows for extracting key data points and assessing narrative tone.
Major Report Sections
The MOMR follows a consistent structural organization across editions:
Crude Oil Price Movements. Analysis of recent crude price action across the major benchmarks (Brent, WTI, Dubai, the OPEC Reference Basket itself) with commentary on contributing factors.
Commodity Markets. Broader commodity context including industrial metals, agricultural commodities, and gold — providing macro context for oil market analysis.
World Economy. Economic growth analysis for major economies, with OPEC's GDP forecasts for the year and the following year. The economic forecasts are inputs to OPEC's demand projections.
World Oil Demand. Demand forecasts for the current year and the following year, broken down by region (OECD Americas, OECD Europe, OECD Asia Pacific, Other Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, etc.). The demand forecasts are revised monthly based on new economic and consumption data.
World Oil Supply. Supply forecasts including non-OPEC supply by country (Russia, USA, Canada, Brazil, Norway, etc.) and "Declaration of Cooperation" (OPEC+) supply. Includes both forecast supply and analytical commentary on production trends.
Product Markets and Refinery Operations. Refinery utilization, product cracks, and product market dynamics across major regions.
Tanker Market. Freight rate analysis and tanker fleet utilization commentary.
Oil Trade. Major bilateral trade flows including OPEC exports by destination region.
Stock Movements. OECD commercial inventory data, with breakdown by region and product category.
Balance of Supply and Demand. The integrated supply-demand balance showing whether the global market is in surplus, deficit, or balance based on OPEC's analytical view. Often the most-watched section of the report.
Each section combines data tables, charts, and analytical narrative.
The Secondary Sources Production Data
The MOMR's most distinctive data feature is the "secondary sources" production data — production estimates for each OPEC member country compiled from external industry sources rather than from member self-reporting. The methodology and the data have been covered in our OPEC+ production tracking page; key features include:
- External source synthesis — OPEC commissions production estimates from S&P Global Platts, Argus Media, the International Energy Agency, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy, Bloomberg, and other industry sources
- Country-by-country breakdown — Monthly production estimates for each OPEC member published as both individual data points and totals
- Comparison with direct communication — The report presents both "secondary sources" estimates and member self-reported "direct communication" data, allowing analysts to identify discrepancies
- Multi-month revision history — Prior months' estimates may be revised in subsequent reports as additional data becomes available
The secondary sources data is the OPEC Secretariat's principal mechanism for tracking compliance with OPEC+ quota commitments and is the data that markets most closely watch as the authoritative production measure.
The Demand Forecast Series
OPEC's demand forecasts are among the most-watched in the industry. Key features:
Multi-year horizon. The MOMR provides current-year and following-year demand forecasts with regional breakdowns. Longer-horizon forecasts appear in OPEC's separate World Oil Outlook publication (annual rather than monthly).
Regional granularity. Demand forecasts break down by major regions and sometimes by major countries within regions. China-specific demand forecasts are particularly closely watched.
Monthly revisions. Forecasts are revised monthly based on new economic data, consumption indicators, and analytical reassessment.
Comparison with IEA forecasts. OPEC and IEA demand forecasts often diverge meaningfully — sometimes by 500,000 barrels per day or more — reflecting different methodological approaches and different institutional perspectives.
OPEC has historically tended to produce demand forecasts somewhat more optimistic than IEA forecasts, particularly for non-OECD demand growth. The divergence is itself informative as a signal of differing institutional views.
Reading the Commentary for OPEC Policy Signals
The MOMR's narrative commentary often signals OPEC institutional thinking that informs subsequent ministerial policy decisions. Several specific commentary patterns to watch:
"Balanced market" language. Descriptions of the global market as "balanced" typically signal OPEC satisfaction with current production policy. Descriptions of "tight" or "loose" markets signal potential policy adjustment direction.
Inventory commentary. Discussions of OECD inventory levels relative to historical norms — particularly the 5-year average — signal OPEC's view of market balance. Inventories "above the 5-year average" typically signal OPEC concern about oversupply; "below the 5-year average" signals comfort with current tightness.
Demand growth assessment. Strong language around demand growth signals OPEC optimism about absorbing potential production increases. Cautious language signals concern.
Non-OPEC supply commentary. Strong projections of non-OPEC supply growth (particularly U.S. shale, Brazilian pre-salt, Guyanese production) signal OPEC concern about market share. Modest projections signal more relaxed market share dynamics.
Geopolitical risk references. Mentions of specific geopolitical risks (Hormuz tensions, sanctions effects, conflict episodes) signal OPEC awareness of disruption dynamics.
OPEC+ communique language. When the report restates OPEC+ commitments or interprets recent ministerial decisions, the language often signals operational interpretation that goes beyond the formal communique text.
Compared to the OPEC World Oil Outlook
The MOMR is OPEC's monthly publication. OPEC also publishes the annual World Oil Outlook (WOO), typically released in the fourth quarter of each year. The WOO provides long-term scenarios extending 20+ years into the future, covering structural energy transition questions that the MOMR's short-term focus does not address.
The WOO has become particularly important in recent years as energy transition projections have become central to industry strategic planning. OPEC's long-term oil demand projections — which have historically been more optimistic than IEA scenarios about continued oil demand strength — are followed closely as the producer cartel's institutional view of the energy transition.
For monthly market analysis, the MOMR is the principal OPEC publication; for long-term outlook analysis, the WOO is the key reference.
Comparing OPEC MOMR with IEA OMR
The OPEC MOMR and IEA Oil Market Report cover similar territory with different institutional perspectives. Key differences:
Institutional perspective. OPEC represents producer interests; IEA was founded to represent OECD consumer interests during the 1970s oil crises. The institutional perspectives shape methodological and presentation choices.
Release timing. Both reports are typically released during the second week of each month, often within days of each other, allowing direct comparison.
Forecast divergence. Demand forecasts, supply forecasts, and inventory analyses can diverge meaningfully between the two reports. Sophisticated analysts read both and form views informed by both perspectives.
Data sources. Some data sources overlap (particularly secondary sources for OPEC production); others diverge meaningfully.
For deeper coverage of the IEA OMR, see our IEA OMR guide.
Limitations and Considerations
Several limitations affect MOMR analysis:
Institutional perspective. The MOMR reflects OPEC's institutional view, which has commercial and political implications that may bias presentations in subtle ways.
Reporting lag. Data covers prior months with several weeks' lag, limiting timeliness for current decision-making.
Forecast accuracy. Monthly demand and supply forecasts are subject to substantial revision as actual data emerges. Forecast accuracy across multi-month horizons is genuinely limited.
Secondary source dependence. The "secondary sources" methodology depends on external providers' methodologies, which have their own limitations.
Limited non-OPEC granularity. Non-OPEC supply commentary is generally less detailed than OPEC member coverage.
Despite these limitations, the MOMR remains one of the most authoritative single sources of OPEC member production data and one of the most important regular reports for global oil market analysis.
The OPEC MOMR in One Sentence
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is the Vienna-based OPEC Secretariat's flagship monthly publication — providing the authoritative secondary-sources production data for OPEC members, OPEC's analytical views on global demand, supply, and inventories, and narrative commentary that signals institutional thinking ahead of ministerial policy decisions.